The last three weeks are a good reminder of the impact of elections on policy change in Washington, DC. As President Trump and a Republican Congress have begun to implement their priorities, there are a handful of key takeaways that can help better inform what to expect going forward.
Flexible Policies: It is clear that some of the policies being announced by the White House are more flexible than advertised. The 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, for example, were almost immediately paused after they were formally announced. Similarly, the elimination of de minimis shipments was reinstated after a couple of days. Uncertainty will likely just be part of the norm for the near term, so expect the unexpected when analyzing policies announced.
Republican Alignment, For Now: With some small exceptions, Republican policymakers have largely embraced Trump policies or at least refused to oppose them. However, there are a handful of issues that clearly have the potential to bring some division between Republicans on Capitol Hill and the White House, including tariffs, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and congressional authority (i.e., spending, authorizing legislation, etc.).
Democratic Response Likely to Increase: Many have been wondering why Democrats have not been more vocal or unified in their response in the early days of the Trump Administration. They obviously do not have the platform they once did when they controlled Congress, but they are working to build a response effort that is more narrowly focused on key issues and policy impacts. In the months ahead they will certainly be more visible and active.
Administrative Actions are a Priority: Even with Republican majorities in the House and Senate, Republicans will have a tough time getting big legislation across the finish line with the need for Democratic support in the Senate. Outside of budget reconciliation, everything will need to be bipartisan. Given the hurdle that exists, the President and Congress will favor administrative actions going forward, where possible.
The Courts Will Be Open for Business: Without question, some will rely on the courts to lead the oversight function of the Administration. Based on these early days, courts will be busy going forward ironing out what is within the President’s power and what is not. Expect the courts to remain a big piece of the puzzle in the months ahead.
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