A Confluence of Policy Issues for Republicans

It is hard enough for Congressional leadership to navigate one complex issue with narrow majorities in the House and Senate, but it is an entirely different scenario when multiple issues are forced upon Congress simultaneously, all with significant political and policy consequences, and most with a deadline.  That is exactly what is happening now with recent (and possibly ongoing) U.S. military action in Iran, FY 2026 funding (with action required by September 30th), budget reconciliation (with an internal deadline of July 4th), and the looming end to the “90-day pause” around reciprocal tariffs (July 7th).   Here are five factors to consider when analyzing this emerging confluence of policy issues: 

Congress Will Prioritize Issues as Scenarios Change:  One thing Congress does not do well is walk and chew gum at the same time.  Balancing multiple issues is doable, but their track record is not great, and the narrow majorities make it nearly impossible - especially as vote problems exist on every one of these issues.  Congress is prioritizing budget reconciliation now because it’s their core priority, and they have put a ton of work into getting it close to the finish line. However, if the situation in Iran moves beyond one targeted strike, Congress will have no choice but to turn their focus to Iran.  Most other issues will be sidelined at that point.  

No Issue is Easy:  In normal times, a simple continuing resolution at the end of September was business as usual.  These are not normal times, and there is zero possibility that funding bills will be sent to the President before the end of September. This means that, among everything else, a debate around a continuing resolution (with the requisite fear of a government shutdown) is going to happen in September.  Not only are there some Republicans who would favor a shutdown over another continuing resolution, but Democrats are unlikely to help Republicans resolve the issue without concessions that Republicans are unlikely to make.  All this to say, even the simplest issues on the list are complex.  

Some Issues Impact Congress, But They Don’t Have Control Over Them:  In what may be the most frustrating part of this confluence of issues that Congress will need to deal with is that they do not actually control all of them.  Tariffs, for example, are entirely being implemented by the White House without any legislative role from Congress.  However, Congress carries all the risk given that they are on the ballot in 2026.  So, some issues are more of a distraction to Congress than anything else.  If handled in a way that will cause Republicans some pain or political risk (both a real possibility with tariffs), Congress will need to deal with the issue they do not play a role in.  

The List May Grow: Right now, Congress is looking at the confluence of four big issues, but that does not mean more will not emerge in the coming weeks or months.  Iran was not really expected to be on the list a month ago, for example.  If budget reconciliation does not pass this summer, Congress will need to address raising the debt ceiling (yet another complex issue) as a standalone bill.  And then, of course, there is the unknown.  The takeaway here is that the current list will be tough to navigate; growing the list multiplies the complexity of the problem for leadership.  

Politics Will Lead Policy at Some Point:  It is just reality that as the election nears, politics will begin playing an outsized role on both sides of the aisle.  That generally does not lend itself to helping legislative efforts, as policymakers want to take fewer controversial votes and spend more time on the campaign trail.  While most of today’s issues seem somewhat near-term, the longer they play out, the more likely a political viewpoint will be added to the strategy…which could also change how issues are prioritized, how legislation is drafted, or even whether they get addressed at all.