Trade Policy Returns to the White House Agenda

The United States Trade Representative (USTR) will have three comment periods close over the next couple of weeks -- one on protections against forced labor, one on intellectual property and Vietnam, and one on the U.S. - China Board of Trade. One more, focusing on excess capacity -- foreign countries producing too much product unnecessarily—has yet to be formally announced. Each is consequential as they may be the last platform this year to advocate for/against tariffs and exclusions. They may also impact existing bilateral trade negotiations that the United States has begun with other major trading partners.     

It is, of course, not yet known what will come of these tariff decisions, especially with an election on the horizon that is likely to focus (at least in part) on the cost of consumer goods.  Some policymakers will not be too excited to answer questions on the campaign trail about new tariffs when trying to discuss ways they are helping to bring costs down. However, trade policy (and tariffs) have been core to the President's economic agenda. Based on messaging from the Administration, these policies are not going away any time soon, even though there may be some opportunities for exclusions along the way.    

At the same time, the United States wrapped up a series of bilateral discussions with Mexico about the U.S .-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and will now participate in a trilateral meeting with both Mexico and Canada, officially launching the joint review outlined in the original agreement. These discussions will be critical for the future of the USMCA and will determine the extent of reform suggested or made by the three parties. The President and his team have been fairly transparent about their interest in bringing new reforms to the agreement.   

As a busy trade policy season re-emerges, it will be important to watch the three key factors that could influence this policy space: international relationships with major trading partners, the 2026 election, and the economy.