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OUR PERSPECTIVES

September Predictions



The members of both chambers of Congress have returned to their respective districts for the August recess. They’ll return in early September to what could be a sprint to advance priority legislation (although not full-year appropriations) before another month-long recess in October leading up to elections.

 

Pre-Election Activity


Despite a historically unproductive 118th Congress, several key bills and packages could see movement in September ahead of the lame duck session. And while much of this action may not lead to full passage before 2025, teeing up legislation for success in the 119th Congress could be an equally important effort in the long-term.

 

Debate continues over whether a public lands or wildfire package will see the finish line before the end of the year. The long-awaited Energy Permitting Reform Act of 2024 was recently introduced by Senators Manchin (I-WV) and Barrasso (R-WY) and marked up by the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. After several failed attempts and more than a year of negotiations, the Senate is eager for a legislative win. And while the ultimate fate of the bill is unclear, it’s sure to take up significant bandwidth in the Senate, possibly hindering the efforts necessary to move a public lands/wildfire package. However, a strong push from leadership could very well reinvigorate these efforts after elections.

 

In the House, efforts to advance Natural Resources Committee Chair Westerman’s (R-AR) Fix Our Forests Act. After the bill was reported out of committee in June with bipartisan amendments and cosponsors (including 6 California Democrats), the bill is pending a floor vote, which could take place as soon as next month. Although significant changes have been made to the bill (including the removal provisions mandating a 24-hour fire suppression policy and force arbitration) since a discussion draft circulated in the spring, some committee Democrats and other interested stakeholders are still expressing concerns over broad exemptions from National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) reviews and perceived limitations on judicial review. At the same time, the bill’s momentum shouldn’t be underestimated and select provisions could end up in a larger legislative package.

 

Appropriations


Prior to the August departure, the House passed its 5th appropriations bill on the House floor and then immediately cancelled all votes for the following week. The Senate has now reported 11 of its 12 bills out of committee, leaving only the Homeland Security bill to be considered by the full committee upon Congress’ return in September.

 

Part of the reason for the House’s early-departure was skepticism of GOP leadership that House Republicans, which had passed the less controversial appropriations bills on the docket, had the votes necessary to pass any further legislation. And while the Senate’s bills are still pending floor votes and could still be amended on the floor, the Senate’s process is generally less partisan than in the House and bills typically have a smoother path to full passage.

 

There is virtually no expectation that Congress will enact any of its 12 appropriations bills before elections in November. With the new fiscal year beginning on October 1st, this means Congress will almost certainly have to pass a continuing resolution to keep the government running through the fall (and potentially through much of winter 2025). Debates as to how long the impending CR should last are already underway and two schools of thought have emerged: 1) fund the government until just after elections so that Congress can clear the decks for the 119th Congress, or 2) fund the government into the 2025 so that potential new majorities in each chamber can tweak legislation to match their priorities or introduce entirely new bills.

 

While option 1) would be less time consuming and provide a smoother transition for the next Congress, it’s becoming increasingly clear that both parties want to see how they fare in November before finalizing FY25 appropriations. We’re likely in for an appropriations timeline similar to FY24, where full-year funding for all 12 accounts was not enacted until the spring.

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