Reconciliation: A Win (and Risk) for Both Parties?

Without question, the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill is a significant victory for Republicans, who have been able to advance massive legislation with a very narrow majority in both the House and the Senate.  This will be the most significant policy win for Republicans between now and the 2026 election.

At the same time, Democrats will view the passage of this legislation as a political win; an opportunity to remind voters of some of the more controversial provisions in the bill (Medicaid, SNAP, etc.) heading into the 2026 election.  

Polls in June were mixed on the legislation, with 3 major polls showing strong opposition for the bill (Fox, Quinnipiac, KFF) and 2 major polls showing overall support for the bill (Washington Post, Pew). 

There is plenty of time, however, for Americans to better understand what is in the bill (given the many changes) and form their own analysis on whether it is good for them or not.  There is also enough time to see how some of these provisions are having an impact on the economy.  And, of course, there is a lot of time for candidates and third-party organizations to “educate” voters on all that is good or all that is bad about the bill (depending on what side they are on).  

Expect this legislation to be the central messaging point in the election for both parties.  It may become a matter of who constructs the best message that resonates with voters.  There is an opportunity for both sides here, but also some risk for everyone in overreaching on the message (a common mistake among candidates).