We are officially in the final week of negotiations ahead of a potential government shutdown. Federal funding will run out after March 14 and Congressional leaders are negotiating in real time what each party’s stance will be to keep the government open.
There will be a lot of noise this week as both parties posture. Here’s what to watch as we get closer to the deadline:
Legislative Proposals and Reactions: House Speaker Mike Johnson introduced a 99-page funding bill designed to extend federal funding through September 30, 2025. This proposal allocates approximately $892.5 billion for defense—a $6 billion increase—and around $708 billion for non-defense activities, marking an 8% reduction from the previous year. Notably, the bill excludes funding for earmarks. House Democratic leadership has said they will not vote for a spending bill cutting Medicare and Medicaid, setting up a messaging battle ahead of the House vote.
Republican Unity and Leadership Dynamics: With narrow majorities in both chambers, Speaker Johnson needs a nearly unanimous party-line vote on the bill. Watch for House Republicans to raise objections or uncertainty ahead of the vote.
Democratic Opposition and Negotiation Stance: House Democrats, led by Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, have criticized the proposed funding cuts to essential services, including healthcare programs. They argue that the bill disproportionately favors defense spending while neglecting critical domestic priorities. Watch for how Minority Leader Jeffries advises Democrats to vote on the bill and if there is any crossing over party lines to vote in support of a clean CR.
Senate Considerations and Potential Bipartisan Efforts: Unlike in the House, Republicans will need to court Democrats to reach the 60-vote threshold. Moderate Democrats, such as Senator Elissa Slotkin, are withholding support pending assurances that congressional spending directives will be honored.
White House Reactions: Both parties will be closely watching what comes out of the White House. President Trump has endorsed the clean CR, but that could change at any point. Look to whether additional strings are attached to a CR in final negotiations or if the president or close advisors revoke support throughout the week.
With one week to go, there will be a lot of external posturing and closed-door negotiations. History shows that once the government shuts down, it’s a lot harder to reopen. Watching for whether Republicans can maintain unity and how willing Democrats will be to cross party lines will be key to assessing whether the government stays open come Saturday morning.
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