We Have a Government Shutdown. What’s Next?

Now that the government shutdown is officially underway (currently on day 2), the obvious question is what needs to happen to end the shutdown and fund the government.  To quote my least favorite response to a question: “It’s complicated.”  

As soon as a shutdown begins, both sides go to their own “corners.”  Republican and Democratic leadership work hard to keep their “team” together and ensure they limit any defections, especially around ongoing votes.  They also spend time working the press and advancing their message on social media and TV.  In some sense, the immediate aftermath of a shutdown is to “win” the message.

As the shutdown continues, pressure builds among policymakers - especially those in vulnerable seats that are up for re-election in 2026.  They hear from their constituents regularly about the need to end the shutdown.  Both sides will work to increase pressure to push the other side of the aisle to either change their position or come to the negotiating table.  Republicans in the Senate, for example, are using votes on the continuing resolution to increase pressure on Senate Democrats in hopes that either (1) more Senate Democrats support the resolution or (2) Senate Democrats push their leadership to find a negotiated solution.  

The difficulty here is that it is easier to prevent a shutdown than to end a shutdown.  This is, in part, because both sides want to “win” and tend to close the door to further negotiation as their position has only strengthened over time.  The key to coming back to the negotiating table largely rests on the pressure they feel from their constituents and colleagues.  

All that said, there appears to be little or no communication between the two sides since the government shutdown.  The debate will largely unfold through the press in the near-term, and most decision-making will run through House and Senate leadership.