The Politics of Trade Policy

We are just under 265 days from the midterm elections (with early primaries just around the corner), so almost everything needs to be viewed through both a policy and political lens at this point...and increasingly so as the election nears.  Doing this helps to separate messaging from policy, while also appreciating how closely the two are aligned heading into a consequential election cycle.  

Trade is no exception.  The President's tariff agenda has consistently been a talking point of most Democrats and a handful of concerned Republicans. This week, a group of Republicans joined Democrats to prevent a procedural motion to ban privileged resolutions on the President's tariff policies, which was followed the next day by a privileged resolution against the underlying authority (an emergency declaration) used to justify tariffs on Canada, which passed with Republican help. The Senate is likely to move the resolution as well.  

While there is no possibility these resolutions will ever be approved by the President (the President would veto any that reach his desk), they highlight the intersection of policy and politics in the trade space -- expect Democrats to keep advancing these resolutions to attract more Republicans to join them. 

As affordability remains a key (or the key) policy issue ahead of the 2026 election, anything that touches consumer costs will be an issue that both sides of the political aisle seek to leverage.  And in the background, a lot of trade matters are moving -- agreements finalized or in the works with El Salvador, Guatemala, and India.  Good conversations between the President and China that signaled agreement around trade issues (their agreement has yet to be finalized).  The Administration continues to work on USMCA and other bilateral agreements.  All in all, trade is a busy policy space that will be an increasingly busy political space as the year progresses.