The End of the Government Shutdown: 5 Takeaways

This government shutdown broke the record for the longest government shutdown (41 days) and will be studied by academicians for years.  In some ways, this mirrored previous shutdowns, but it also represents some new dynamics that are worth thinking about.  Here are 5 takeaways from the longest government shutdown in history.  

Urgency Was Scarce:  For most of the shutdown, there was not as much urgency for resolution as one would expect (or that we are used to from past shutdowns).  Until November (when SNAP, air travel, etc., were impacted) and the election was finalized, there was not much urgency to resolve the shutdown.  Until recently, political risk did not outweigh political opportunity for either side, which largely allowed the shutdown to go on without much public outcry.  

Elections Matter:  Republican messaging shifted quickly after Democrats won significant races (by significant margins), including both governor races in Virginia and New Jersey.  President Trump's immediate analysis was that the shutdown played a big role in the election outcome -- at a time when impacts from the shutdown were growing.  

A Potential Shutdown Return:  The extension being passed will only last through January 30th, which means policymakers in the House and Senate will face a similar funding cliff early next year.  It is hard to see where issues will change by then between the two parties, and how they will suddenly come together to either advance the remaining appropriations bills (or a portion of them) or make another attempt at a continuing resolution.  Either way, there is not much time to play with before a comprehensive and bipartisan strategy needs to be in place to avert another shutdown.  

Democratic Division: Despite the overwhelming political win last week for Democrats, House and Senate Democrats are now deeply divided over whether it was the right strategy to vote to end the shutdown without any firm policy changes. Division is never good within a caucus, especially when entering a period where a second continuing resolution might be needed early next year.  

Congress Takes a Hit for Shutdown:  The back and forth on who "won" the shutdown is fairly irrelevant because voters will not necessarily see it that way.  However, there was a noticeable "approval" shift in Congress during the timeframe of the shutdown -- an 11% drop in approval since the shutdown began. This is not something that incumbents (especially those on the ballot in less than a year) would welcome.  It highlights a perception that Congress is dysfunctional and unable to operate on a bipartisan basis.  We will see what the impact of that will be. 

Now that the shutdown is over, the recovery will be interesting to watch -- will this spur a bipartisan package at the end of the year, will parties grow ever further apart, or will internal divisions continue to grow?