The 90-Day Pause…What Happens Next?

President Trump announced a “90-day pause” on reciprocal tariffs on April 9th.  With just three weeks left, many are wondering what the future of tariffs will be and how or when announcements will be made regarding what country-specific tariffs have been determined.  

Much has happened since the pause was enacted.  Over 70 nations contacted the White House to discuss or negotiate tariff levels, many of which will not be able to participate in full negotiations before the deadline.  The President has formalized an agreement with the UK and announced a looming agreement with China.  Many other negotiations are underway.  

There are a number of possible next steps as everyone is anxiously counting down the days until July 9th.  The US Trade Representative requested final offers from nations two weeks ago.  The President has said that they may get to a point where they send out letters with a “take it or leave it” offer. His team has noted the potential for an extension of the current “pause” for those who are negotiating in good faith.  Plenty of other theories and rumors are circulating across the policy ecosystem.  

Our analysis is that the President is listening to Republican policymakers calling for more certainty in the tariff policy space and less impact on consumers (who are obviously also voters).  It would be surprising if there were announcements that are aligned with the spirit of the initial reciprocal tariffs announced, especially since they reached an agreement with China - the largest tariff target of the Administration.  

Additionally, Congress wants to focus on budget reconciliation, end-of-year “must-pass” bills, and the 2026 election (not necessarily in that order).  Responding to constituent concerns around tariffs they are not responsible for is a headache they do not need and a distraction they do not want.  

So, expect a smoother path ahead, although not one that solves all existing tariff and trade problems.  Court rulings around the President’s authority from IEEPA could disrupt that, of course.  But it is important always to remember, regardless of the White House process going forward, that tariffs remain a core pillar of the President’s economic policy and a tool that does not require Congress to leverage.  For those reasons, they will always be a part of the White House’s broader strategy in some capacity, even just as leverage on occasion.