Scenarios for the End of the 118th Congress

When Congress returns after elections in November, they’ll have less than five weeks to round out the legislative calendar for the year. The legislative calendar ends on December 20th, which is the same day that last month’s continuing resolution expires. In addition to full Fiscal Year 2025 appropriations, there are several “must-pass” and high-priority pieces of legislation left to be addressed before the end of the 118th Congress.

As always, elections results are going to have a major impact on Congress’ drive to get things done during the lame duck session. On the one hand, Members of Congress who lose their races may be unmotivated to push legislation with less than two months left in their terms and the holiday season approaching. At the same, many of those same Members (or those retiring) may feel a last-minute urge to pass legislation to cement their legacies in Congress. With Senator Joe Manchin’s (I-WV) retirement clearing a path for Republican Governor Jim Justice in West Virginia and a tough race for Senator Jon Tester (D-MT), the Senate is almost certainly going to flip to Republican control in the 119th Congress. The outcome for the House is less clear. Either way, there will be new leadership in the White House come late-January, inevitably shifting and recalibrating priorities in D.C.

With these potential new majorities in mind, the Members of the 118th Congress are in the process of clearing the following legislation as the year comes to an end:

Appropriations: The operating assumption on a final FY25 funding vehicle is that House and Senate leadership will negotiate an omnibus package in the weeks leading up to the holiday recess (and the end of the Congress). However, it’s entirely possible (and some would say likely) that Congress isn’t able to reach an agreement on an omnibus before December 20th, in which case another continuing resolution would be necessary to fund the government into the new calendar year.

Disaster Supplemental: In the wake of hurricanes Helene and Milton, demand for supplemental appropriations for disaster recovery ahead of FY25 funding is extremely high. But with the full agenda and limited number of voting days remaining, there’s a real question as to whether a separate funding vehicle is even possible. And if a separate disaster supplemental is taken up ahead of FY25 appropriations, what else will Members (and stakeholders) push to include with it?

NDAA: The quintessential “must-pass” legislation (passed annually for the last 63 years) faces hurdles in 2024. Namely, with only the House having passed their version of the bill and concerns about the Senate’s timeline for passing their own bill cropping up, Congress may have to get creative in order to continue the NDAA streak. This is especially delicate considering the massive manager’s package that was filed last month. However, confidence is generally high that congressional defense leaders will come to an agreement before the end of the year.

Farm Bill: Despite public comments from House and Senate Agriculture committee leadership expressing a desire to pass a full Farm Bill reauthorization before the end of the year, the amount of time left to negotiate and advance such a comprehensive bill makes doing so seem virtually impossible. But heavy engagement by Ag groups in recent months has sparked discussions of an “ad hoc emergency package” for the farm community that could be coupled with an extension of the 2018 Farm Bill.

Public Lands Package: Congress’ early adjournment following the passage of the last month’s continuing resolution punted efforts to advance a significant amount of legislation, including a planned Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee markup of over 70 public lands bills, which is now expected to take place in late-November. Given the season-hiring freeze at the Forest Service, a workforce housing crisis, and the ever-increasing frequency of catastrophic wildfires, congressional interest in moving legislation to support public lands remains high.

After elections determine the landscape for the next two years, Congress will return to D.C. to a full docket with limited time and resources. Stakeholders should think strategically about where to engage through the end of the year and start planning for the new political landscape in 2025.