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OUR PERSPECTIVES

Republicans Win Political Trifecta; Democrats Still Have Power and Influence



As Republicans win control of the House of Representatives, Senate, and White House, much of the talk has surrounded their significant authority over the policy, oversight, and funding agendas.  While that is all true and accurate, that narrative forgets that while Democrats do not have the majority of either chamber in the Capitol, they still have a considerable amount of power and influence, which they will leverage heavily.  Here are 3 big ways Democrats will continue to be relevant in the 119th Congress.  


Senate Still Needs 60 Votes:  With the exception of budget reconciliation, the Senate will need to reach the 60 vote threshold for ALL legislation that passes.  With only 53 votes, Democrats will need to bring at least 7 votes to the table for Senate Republicans to move legislation.  Without question, Democrats will use these opportunities to shape legislation to include their own priorities as well. 


Narrow House Majority: The House of Representatives will have have a narrow Republican majority, which means any time a handful of Republicans decide to vote against a measure, either the bill will fail or Democrats will be in a position to rescue it (while demanding their own priorities be included).  This happened semi-regularly in the last Congress and the same issues will likely divide Republicans in the next Congress - funding bills, debt ceiling, etc.  


An Election on the Horizon: The 2026 election in two years will begin very soon as candidates are expected to announce their candidacy in the near-term.  Democrats will be well-positioned to force some votes that will be politically uncomfortable to Republicans, especially in committee and through procedural votes on the House floor.  This tactic can serve one of two purposes: (1) create some political risk for Republicans or (2) force Republicans to vote with Democrats on sensitive issues.  Regardless, Democrats will leverage these votes whenever possible. 


The 119th Congress is expected to be somewhat chaotic with the new power structure and a White House on a mission to shake things up in DC.  While Democrats lost their ownership over the Senate agenda and the White House, they will run a sophisticated effort to insert their influence where possible and will successfully help shape legislation while doing so.  Reports that Democrats will be observers in the 119th Congress are widely misinformed or based on a misunderstanding of the legislation process and tools available to the House and Senate minority.  

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