Pressure’s On the House to Pass the One Big Beautiful Bill Act – What Needs to Happen to Pass the Bill this Week

In a 50-50 tie-breaking vote, the Senate narrowly passed its version of the One Big Beautiful Bill. The House is facing a July 4^th deadline to pass the bill despite vocal opposition from different wings of the party.

Here’s what we predict needs to happen for this bill to become law by Friday:

House leadership must wrangle a fractured majority. House Republicans hold a razor-thin majority, and every vote counts. We know there are existing concerns around Medicaid cuts, IRA tax credits, overall spending, and the debt ceiling increase, to name a few. Speaker Johnson and his team will need to convince Republicans that a vote of yes is worth overcoming publicly stated concerns.

Deficit hawks need a path to yes. House Freedom Caucus members struggled to vote for the House version of the bill with a price tag of over $2T, and the Senate version doesn’t do much to alleviate these concerns. A side deal or public commitment to tackle deficit reduction in the next budget cycle could bring some of these lawmakers back on board.

President Trump plays a huge role. The President has given a desired deadline of July 4^th to sign this bill, and few Republicans want to be seen as the ones holding up the bill. He is getting increasingly involved and is not afraid to be heavy-handed in pressuring Republicans to get to yes.

If the reconciliation bill is going to make it to the President’s desk this week, House leadership must thread a very narrow needle between balancing internal party politics, external pressure, and a time crunch. With House Members returning tomorrow, we’ll see how these paths play out.