Policymakers Seek New Offices

While it may be a bit early to determine what broad trends there will be around Congressional retirements announced in advance of the 2026 election, it is already clear that policymakers are abandoning their current seats to seek higher office.  So far, 10 Republicans have announced their retirement to run for a new office -- 8 to run for Governor and 2 to run for the Senate.  Similarly, 7 Democrats have announced their retirement to run for a new office -- 2 to run for Governor and 5 to run for the Senate. 

Of course, the political dynamics of the looming 2026 election (emerging political trends, hyper-partisanship, etc.) are the biggest factor in driving policymakers to seek a new office.  However, overall frustration is also a significant factor.  Some policymakers in DC are tired of the slow pace of policymaking, and the 7 policymakers now running for Governor will find a dramatically different (and usually easier) policymaking climate at the state level.

It is likely that we have not seen the full list of policymakers leaving their current roles, including those seeking higher office.  As positions open and political trends evolve, more policymakers will see opportunities emerge.  Similarly, that same climate will likely spur more retirements from policymakers who do not want to face a difficult re-election or a potential change in the House or Senate majority.

The unknown is around redistricting.  If the current back-and-forth between Republicans and Democrats to advance redistricting early actually happens, we will likely see more retirements.