The number of legislative days for the House of Representatives and Senate are dwindling, but the number of bills that lawmakers need to act on continue to increase. This generally means one of two things: (1) a robust “lame-duck” session after the election, or (2) pushing most issues to the next Congress. Both avenues come with their advantages and disadvantages, which could change depending on the outcome of the 2024 election.
Further to the complexity around navigating this crowded agenda, there are several issues that will already be in focus in 2025, including the expiration of tax breaks from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. Below is an overview of some of the larger issues that remain in play for either a “lame-duck” session or next year:
Farm Bill: Everyone is interested in getting a Farm Bill done this year, but the House and Senate are far apart on what a bill should look like, as are Republicans and Democrats (especially in the House). The narrow majorities in the House and Senate not only require this to be bipartisan, but somewhat overwhelmingly bipartisan since there will be opposition regardless. The path to success here is removing the provisions that policymakers seem stuck on (i.e., reforms to SNAP benefits) and increasing the number of policymaker priorities. At this point, that does not seem likely. While this will be the last Farm Bill for Senate Agriculture Committee Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), getting this legislation done as a legacy bill does not seem to be a priority - which translates to significant bipartisan compromise being needed quickly if this bill has any chance of reaching the President’s desk this year.
Data Privacy: Creating a federal data privacy law has been a priority since Europe and California decided to advance their own. It is an unusual policy space that has significant interest from both industry and consumers. For the last several Congresses, there has been real excitement surrounding bipartisan frameworks – all of which have fallen apart as policymakers get anxious around specific provisions. When the House and Senate committees reached an agreement, there was hope that this could get done. However, just prior to the House mark-up, Republicans raised concerns around individual items, including a provision allowing a private right of action. While this may be the last major bill that House Energy and Commerce Chair Cathy McMorris Rogers (R-WA) works on before she leaves Congress, it seems like an uphill battle before the end of the year (especially with a legislative history that is not very promising).
House Tax Bill: Tax legislation drafted by House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) and Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-OR) passed the House with unusually strong bipartisan support. When it reached the Senate, Republicans blocked it from moving due to a number of issues – not the least of which was having to swallow a House tax bill without any Senate process to adjust it. There are real reasons why getting this legislation done this year is important (before the debate around extending the 2017 tax cuts next year), but Senate Republicans have not moved and the provision used to pay for the bill may not be as available as it was when the bill initially passed the House. Without this bill moving this year, however, next year’s tax fight – appropriately named Taxmageddon – will only be more complicated with more provisions (and more cost). Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has toyed with the idea of putting the bill up for a vote in the Senate as a political tool, which would likely shelve the bill until next year for Republicans. Any hope rests on good old fashion negotiation at this point.
Fiscal Year 2025 Funding Bills: The twelve appropriations bills are making their way through the House, and the Senate has started to move their own bills through the Senate Appropriations Committee. The differences between the House and Senate bills are massive – not to mention the House bills are passing along partisan lines and the Senate bills are bipartisan. While this is not super unusual, it does take some time to get the bills finalized between the House and Senate. Without question, appropriators will not meet the September 30th deadline and will need a continuing resolution that reaches beyond the election. The question is whether there will be enough willingness to compromise after a contentious election that will likely bring significant changes to the political landscape. Appropriators would like these bills done this year, so they can start fresh next year on the Fiscal Year 2026 spending bills. They have surprised their colleagues in the past with getting to an agreement, so it is possible that they can do so again.
National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA): If there is any bill to bet on for consideration this year, it is the NDAA. While the House and Senate are not totally aligned and the Senate will consider its bill in September (and has hundreds of amendments on the sidelines), the NDAA consistently gets delivered to the President every year. This year will likely not be any different, although the path may bring some uncertainty at times.
Trade Bills: The House Ways and Means Committee passed several trade bills earlier this year without much support from Democrats – most notably a retroactive extension of the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) and the elimination of the de minimis threshold for products imported from China covered by Section 301 tariffs. As Congress becomes increasingly focused on China, these two bills have a real opportunity to both diversify manufacturing beyond China and to close a pathway that China has used to undermine U.S. manufacturers and retailers. Of course, trade is a very politically sensitive policy space and one that has dramatically changed in recent years. These would have to be added to another package to get the support needed to move through the House and Senate, but many U.S. companies see these as urgent priorities.
Outdoor Recreation Bill: The House Natural Resources Committee and Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee have been working on legislation focused on outdoor recreation and public lands for years. A legislative package - the EXPLORE Act - has passed the House and is currently an amendment to the Senate version of the FY25 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). Among industry and the conservation community, this would be an enormous win to get it across the finish line, especially given the $1.1 trillion (and growing) outdoor recreation industry.
There are endless numbers of factors that will impact whether these bills get done this year or next – the outcome of the election, the willingness for bipartisan compromise post-election, the potential for a “better” outcome next year, opposition from internal factions, and very limited time to move everything. It will come down to a combination of the easiest path forward and leadership’s prioritization.
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