How Republican Leadership Elections Predict the Governance Styles of the 120th Congress

This week, House and Senate Republicans elected their caucus leadership for the next Congress. In the Senate, leadership will remain in place with known leadership styles and staff. In the House, a new Minority Leader will bring a new strategy and new allies.

House Predictions: After losing more than 40 seats, House Republicans indicated they wanted a new face running the caucus and chose Rep. Jim Jordan over Rep. Steve Scalise to lead the smallest Republican minority since the 1990s. The conference that elected Rep. Jordan is more conservative than the 119^th Congress, with the election taking out most of the moderate members.

While Rep. Jordan will bring his trusted allies from the Judiciary Committee, he will have to choose whether to keep Speaker Johnson’s team or bring new staff to the leadership office. Having Rep. Emmer holding the number two position as whip and Rep. Lisa McClain keeping the conference chair means that there will primarily be continuity.

With such a strong Democratic majority, House Republicans will have little chance to influence legislation. As the opposition party out of power, they will need to message their positions on the floor, in committee hearings, and across the country. Given incoming Minority Leader Jordan’s close ties to President Trump, expect a united front on their policy positions.

Senate Predictions: Despite public opposition, Senator Thune and the entire leadership team kept their positions with no competition. While the minority is much smaller than it was in the 119^th Congress, Minority Leader Thune and his team still have negotiating power to move major legislation. He will also need to weigh when to push back on President Trump and when to maintain unity to keep 4-5 Republicans from joining bills.

Both incoming leaders will need to determine on a case-by-case basis when to work with the majority and will need to lean on the White House as the sole Republican source of power for legislating in DC.