It is that time of year again when the talk in DC turns to whether Congress will pass FY 2025 funding bills or fail to extend current funding, resulting in a government shutdown. Congress is not even back in session yet and policymakers are already positioning around various demands in attempt to leverage the threat of a government shutdown to advance their own initiatives. When everyone returns to DC, it should be an interesting month navigating the funding fight. Here are a few things to consider:
This Shut Down Debate is Now the Norm: There is almost never a funding deadline that does not raise a question around whether the government will shut down. The days of everyone assuming a continuing resolution will pass in September are over. This debate is now the norm, so it should not surprise anyone, but also should be viewed in the broader context as an annual reality.
Government Shut Down’s Remain Rare: Even though DC talk about a government shutdown and the potential for one fairly often, they do not happen frequently. In fact, the last government shutdown began in December 22, 2018, and lasted for 35 days. While there has been more risk and debate around a shut down in recent years, the government has remained funded consistently since early 2019.
The 118th Congress Has a History of Avoiding a Shutdown: While it has never been pretty, the 118th Congress has found a way to bring both sides of the aisle together to bring enough votes to avoid a shut down. They have done so several times, even with threats of removing leadership surrounding the debate. Albeit surprising, avoiding a government shut down may be one of the more bipartisan and successful efforts in the 118th Congress.
A Shut Down is Politically Bad for Everyone: There is no political value to a government shutdown, despite occasional rhetoric to the contrary. It shows constituents and voters that Congress cannot get their job done and it puts programs and benefits at-risk. While some policymakers in very safe districts may not fear the political implications, most do. Many like to leverage the potential for a shutdown, but few see real value in it actually happening.
A New White House and 119th Congress Wants Work Finished This Year: An incoming White House and the new Congress that will be sworn in January of 2025 do not want to deal with funding uncertainty or the fallout from a shut down as they begin a new year. This prevents them from advancing the agenda they want and basically just restarts the shut down debate again.
For these reasons, it is likely that Congress will use the month of September to pass a continuing resolution (likely into the post-election “lame duck” session of Congress) and then, hopefully, they will finalize funding legislation before the end of the year. Regardless, it would be really bad timing, bad politics, and bad policy for a government shut down. Chances are they rally enough votes to get an extension (and maybe package of bills) across the finish line (I hope this blog ages well).
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