Government funding lapses in just over a week on March 14th. House and Senate Appropriations chairs Cole (R-OK) and Collins (R-ME) have proposed a “two-track” strategy for wrapping up Fiscal Year 2025 appropriations: 1) pass a short-term continuing resolution to fund the government for an additional two weeks to buy more time to finalize 2) a full-year continuing resolution that lasts through the end of FY25.
The Fiscal Responsibility Act requires that legislation appropriating full-year (i.e. non-continuing resolution) funding be passed by April 1st, or mandatory across-the-board spending cuts will automatically go into effect. Regardless of whether the solution is a CR or an omnibus, it’s now virtually impossible for Congress to pass any kind of full-year appropriations package by next Friday. And given the hyper-partisan landscape around government funding (i.e. the spending freeze, DOGE, reductions in force, etc.), an omnibus on any timeline is unlikely – meaning that the full-year CR will have to include language voiding the FRA’s sequestration provision in order to avoid mandatory cuts.
President Trump endorsed the full-year CR approach and sent a list of recommended funding anomalies for inclusion in the CR earlier this week. While mandatory cuts may seem to be in line with the Trump Administration’s recent efforts, indiscriminate cuts that affect military and homeland security spending are unacceptable for congressional Republicans and the White House. Therefore, both have an incentive to pass a full-year CR with FRA workaround language before April 1st.
The problem is that voting margins, particularly in the House, practically require support from Democrats. Surprisingly, topline funding levels are apparently no longer the issue, as House and Senate appropriators have reached a tentative agreement on overall spending for military and non-defense programs. Regardless, Speaker Johnson is planning to move forward with a vote on a full-year CR next week and immediately shift to a short-term CR if the full-year CR vote fails.
Congressional Democrats, in addition to opposing a full-year CR, are holding out for assurances that the Administration will actually spend what they appropriate. It’s unlikely that Republicans formally agree to anything that would hamper the President’s perceived mandate, so the bill text Democrats want is a non-starter.
While cooperation from Democrats is probably sufficient to get both CRs through the Senate, the measure would first have to make it out of the House, where prospects for bipartisanship look bleak. Unless House Republicans can pass these CRs on their own (with a two-vote margin and one Nay already spoken for - leaving room for only one no-vote) the chances of a government shutdown are exceedingly high.
While government shutdowns generally hurt both parties, it’s clear that many Democrats are frustrated by an inability to counter the Republican trifecta and Trump’s sweeping executive actions, and may feel like they have no choice but to stand back and let Republicans wrangle their House and Senate majorities on their own. This is not without severe political risk – as Republicans will certainly blame Democrats for a shutdown. It also has the added risk of potentially accelerating the Administration’s ability to lay off federal workers and scale back federal programming.
As we’ve seen, a lot can change in a week. But as things currently stand, if congressional Republicans are unable to pass funding legislation on their own and Democrats choose not to intervene, a government shutdown is likely. Ideally, the initial damage is enough to drive cooperation to reach an agreement on a full-year solution. But once the government shuts down, it can be difficult to reverse course quickly.
On the other hand, some congressional Republicans are showing signs of discomfort with the effects of the Administration’s actions and are (slowly) starting to voice complaints. Yesterday, Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-SC) warned an OMB nominee about the potential ramifications of continued funding pauses. If more Republicans push back on White House efforts to shrink the Federal government (at least at the speed at which it’s currently happening), momentum could shift in a way that brings Democrats back to the table.
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