Congress Returns to an Uncertain Agenda

After more than a month back home, the House and Senate return next week to a policy agenda that is equal parts uncertain and politically risky.  Many members will come to DC after spending the month selling or criticizing the One Big Beautiful Bill (HR 1), which has spurred all sorts of fiscal and policy debates around the country.  But even this landmark win for the President may take a back seat this Fall to a mix of "must-passes" and political hot potatoes.

The House and Senate are likely to start with the National Defense Authorization Act -- both sides will consider their own version in their respective chambers within the first few weeks.  In terms of legislative odds, getting this bill finalized by the December 31st deadline is almost certain.  This may be the high point of this Fall's agenda.

The House and Senate will prioritize Fiscal Year 2026 spending, which will be a challenge.  To date, the Senate has passed three bills (Military Construction and Veterans, Agriculture, and Legislative Branch.  The House has passed two bills (Military Construction and Veterans).  No bills have been finalized yet, and the September 30th deadline could be a challenge -- even in passing a continuing resolution -- and could be one of several moments where Republican leadership might struggle to avoid the potential of a government shutdown.  We assume this debate will be the top issue throughout the remainder of the year.  This will be the core focus of Congress going forward and will ultimately determine whether other "nice to haves" are able to move, including healthcare-related extensions, the Farm Bill, Surface Transportation Legislation, and several smaller bills.

The Administration also will have its hands full with navigating conflicts in Israel and Ukraine, additional trade decisions with major trading partners, the implementation of existing tariffs announced earlier this month, and a host of domestic issues, including the economy.  

While this would all be an imposing list under any average year, this is not an average year.  More issues are pulling Republicans and Democrats apart than in previous years, and this agenda requires bipartisan support.  From redistricting and rescissions packages to the 2026 election and federal law enforcement presence in cities, both sides of the political aisle are finding more opportunities to move away from each other than to unite around legislative solutions.  

How each side navigates the coming months will not only have significant policy consequences but also real political consequences.  It will be important to watch (1) how both sides position their own efforts as victories, (2) where moments of bipartisanship may emerge to avoid legislative cliffs, and (3) what hurdles ultimately become immovable roadblocks for Congress.