Campaign Season: What’s in Store for the Last 100 Days?

The last 100 days before an election are often more symbolic than informative, but they are useful for considering where things stand as policymakers head home for a month of campaigning and late primaries begin to wrap up.  Here is what to watch: 

A Busy Campaign Trail:  Incumbent candidates will use the entire months of August and October to get out on the campaign trail and make their case to voters, which means they will only be in DC for one more month (September) before the election.  Challengers have an advantage given that they don’t have to go back and forth to DC, but incumbent advantages (name ID, fundraising, etc.) far outweigh their challenger counterparts.  Bottom line…the campaign trail will be very busy in the months ahead and the more active it becomes, the more clarity will emerge to show who is winning and who is not.  

Redistricting May Have Consequential Impacts: Ten states (FL, AL, TN, MO, OH, LA, NC, TX, UT, and CA) successfully redistricted in advance of the 2026 election.  Republicans have an advantage here (according to the Cook Political Report, Republicans could gain up to 15 seats through new congressional maps).  This is significant given that there just are not a ton of seats that are legitimately at-risk, which highlights the impact redistricting could have if Republicans are able to take advantage of the new landscape.  

Time for Legislating is Limited:  As noted above, September is the only month left where policymakers will be in DC before the election.  So, time is running out to finish legislative business that candidates can tout on the campaign trail, especially since the agenda in September will need to focus on some “must-pass” bills, likely the continuing resolution and a likely extension of Surface Transportation Reauthorization, among others.  

Everyone is Watching Presidential Approval:  Both Republicans and Democrats are closely watching approval ratings for President Trump.  Republicans are hoping a rise in approval will help get more Trump voters to the polls, and Democrats are hoping the low approval ratings will reduce voter turnout for Republicans, maybe even spur some Republican voters to vote for Democratic candidates.  Voter intensity for any midterm, especially this one, is expected to be low…so where the President is positioned among the electorate could be key.  

The Economy Will Lead the Debate:  Like most elections, the 2026 election will focus on the economy (specifically affordability).  For the next 100 days, affordability will be top of mind for both candidates and voters.  The combination of messaging around this issue and what actually happens in the next three months in terms of prices on consumer products could be a good indicator of who will ultimately win.