With six months until the 2026 election, campaigns are busy building messaging and avoiding political risk, where possible.  While a lot can change between now and Election Day, here are five things to be aware of as campaigns enter the busy season:

The Affordability Election:  It is no surprise that economic issues remain at the top of voters' minds.  This year, costs and inflation are the biggest concerns for Americans.  A recent Gallup poll found that 31% of respondents identified "high cost of living" as the top financial concern, followed by energy costs (13%), housing costs (13%), and healthcare costs (8%).   

President Trump Approval:  Candidates on both sides of the political aisle will watch the President's approval ratings very closely. Republicans and Democrats know their outcome could depend on how voters feel about the President. Current approval ratings are low; a recent poll shows that 34% approve of the President's job and 64% disapprove. There is a lot of time for these numbers to move (and they will), but watching changes in these polls will help to better understand the election's direction, especially for Republicans.

Congress Faces Low Approval:  A recent Gallup poll highlighted that Congress has a 10% approval rating (with 86% disapproving).  There could be many reasons for this; regardless of the reason, however, incumbents will view these numbers with some level of concern.  Moving bills in the coming months could improve those numbers. Candidates in either party would like to avoid being associated with the dysfunction or lack of progress in Congress; these numbers reflect that there is some risk here for incumbents. 

Retirements Create Problems for Both Parties:  With 67 policymakers elected to the 119th Congress not returning next year, political budgets must also help fill those seats, which creates additional financial strains for those responsible for winning the majority in the House and Senate.  Not all of those open seats create vulnerabilities, but some do.  Watching candidate performance in these districts will be important.

Redistricting Remains the Big Unknown:  As state legislatures and courts are still considering some of these redistricting moves, it is unclear how the maps (or even who will be running) will look across a handful of states.  However, should the scale of these efforts get through court challenges in time, the impacts could be significant in shifting the outcome of the 2026 election.  

There is, of course, a lot of time left before the election.  But activity at this stage begins to matter (especially for primaries) and will help shape and define the election going into the final months.